Publications
금융권 유일의 연구 조직으로 다양한 신기술 영역에서 하나금융그룹의 위상을 높이고
세계적 권위의 학회에서 대외 성과를 달성하고 있습니다.
Papers
Fund Price Analysis Using Convolutional Neural Networks for Multiple Variables
- 발행일
- 2019.12.12
- 발행기관
- IEEE (2019)
- 저자
- Heung-Chang Lee, Bonggyun Ko
- Link
- https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/8931786
초록
Investing in funds has the effect of indirectly employing asset management professionals with specialized knowledge and experience, which can result in a diversified investment through the use of a portfolio. In this study, we focus on learning the patterns of prices rather than time points to predict Korean fund prices. We convert time-series data into 2-dimensional images and analyze them using a convolutional neural network. To improve the fund price forecasting performance, we consider the following aspects. A Korean fund should be recommended according to the level of risk aversion. The risk level of the fund is determined by the proportion of risky assets. Therefore, when estimating the fund price, the risk level of the fund needs to be considered. In this study, we use 15 additional variables, such as foreign stock indexes, foreign exchange rates, and Korean stock indices, in addition to the fund price data. The appropriate filter size, which plays an important role in this process, is proposed. In addition, types of networks and architectures are selected as suitable for forecasting the fund price. We also demonstrate that the number of output classes can be adjusted to increase the future return of the fund. Through this methodology with multiple variables, we can achieve a 25% cumulative profit for 2 years. This means that multi-variable models have a higher cumulative return than the single-variable model and KOSPI and thus a higher average of all funds for active investors.